Himachal Pradesh Exit Polls 2022: BJP may retain power, but with slim majority

Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll: Percentage wise, the India TV-Matrize exit poll says, BJP may get 46 per cent votes, Congress is likely to get 43 pc votes, AAP only 2 pc and Others nine per cent votes.

Himachal Exit Poll: The exit poll prediction says, BJP may win within a range of 35-40 seats, the main opposition Congress may win within a range of 26-31 seats, Aam Aadmi Party may not win a single seat, while and Independents and Others may win within a range of 0-3 seats.

Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll: What the projection suggests about VIP seat projections

• Haroli - Mukesh Agnihotri (Congress) - Trailing
• Sulah - Vipin Parmar (BJP) - Ahead
• Fatehpur - Rakesh Pathania (BJP) - Trailing
• Churah - Hans Raj (BJP) - Ahead 
• Nadaun - Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu (Congress) - Ahead

Himachal Exit Polls: Lower Himachal (Total seats 34). BJP 18-22, Congress 11-15, AAP – nil, Others – 1. Percentage wise: BJP 48 pc, Congress – 42 pc, AAP 2 pc, Others 8 pc. Seat swing: BJP – loss of 3 seats, Congress – gain of 3 seats, Others – no change.

Himachal Exit Poll: What projection says about VIP seats-

• Jairam Thakur - Siraj seat - Ahead
• Shimla Rural - Vikramaditya Singh (Congress) - Ahead 
• Shimla - Sanjay Sood (BJP) - Ahead 
• Kusumpati - Suresh Bhardwaj (BJP) - Trailing
• Banjar - Khimi Ram (Congress) - Ahead 
• Balh - Prakash Chaudhary (Congress) - Ahead 
• Darang - Kaul Singh Thakur (Congress) - Ahead

Since 1985, Himachal Pradesh witnessed a change of regime in every assembly election. This time ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) wants to break the tradition and retain the state for the first time. It is interesting to see whether Modi-magic will work or whether the voters have resorted to their traditional nature to oust the ruling party.

Himachal Exit Poll: The Random Sampling Quantitative Data Collection for exit poll was done through field survey and CATI method among 47,600 respondents (28,560 men and 19,040 women) from November 12 to 20. It was done in all the 68 assembly constituencies with a sample size of 700 respondents per constituency.

Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll: According to Exit poll for Upper Himachal (Total 34 seats), BJP 15-19 seats, Congress 14-18 seats, AAP – nil and Others 0-2 seats. Percentage wise: BJP 46 per cent, Congress 45 pc, AAP 2 pc and Others 7 pc.  Seat swing: BJP – loss of 4 seats, Congress – gain of 5 seats, Others – loss of 1 seat.

Himachal Exit: BJP leader and Chief Minister Jairam Thakur is likely to win his constituency-Seraj in Mandi district comfortably. Seraj is arguably the most important seat in this election because of the CM in the fray. 

The sample size for the Himachal Pradesh Assembly election exit poll was  50,000 as India TV attempted to reach a large number of people to achieve the most accurate projection.