Gujarat elections 2022: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may win a clear majority in the Gujarat assembly elections, with Congress coming second, says India TV-Matrize opinion poll. The results of this opinion poll were telecast today evening on India TV news channel.
According to the opinion poll, BJP may win a comfortable majority with 104-119 seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, while Congress may win 53-68 seats, AAP may win 0-6 seats and 'Others' may win 0-3 seats. Identically, in the 2017 assembly elections, BJP had won 99 seats, Congress had won 77 seats and ‘Others’ had won six (BTP: 2, NCP: 1 and Independents: 3) seats.
Voting percentage wise, the opinion poll says, BJP may get 49.5 per cent, Congress 39.1 per cent, AAP may get 8.4 per cent and 'Others' may get 3 pc votes. In 2017 assembly elections, BJP had got 49.05 per cent votes, Congress 41.44 per cent and ‘Others’ had got 8.65 per cent per cent votes.
Region wise: In Central Gujarat having 61 seats, BJP may get 41, Congress 19 seats, AAP nil and Others 1 seat. In Saurashtra-Kutch having 54 seats, BJP may get 30 seats, Congress may get 21 seats and AAP may get three seats. In South Gujarat having 35 seats, BJP may get 26, Congress may get 6 seats, and AAP 3 seats. In North Gujarat having 32 seats, BJP and Congress may get 16 seats each.
The opinion poll shows, BJP may get 47 pc scheduled caste votes, 49 pc scheduled tribe votes, 59 pc Kadwa Patel votes, 53 pc Leuva Patel votes, 52 pc OBC votes, 49 pc upper caste Hindu votes and 12 pc Muslim votes. Congress may get 42 pc SC votes, 41 pc ST votes, 33 pc Kadwa Patel votes, 36 pc Leuva Patel votes, 40 pc OBC votes, 40 pc upper caste Hindu votes, and 62 pc Muslim votes.
Asked about their best choice for CM, 32 pc opted for Bhupendra Patel, 7 per cent for AAP leader Isudan Gadhavi, six per cent opted for Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil, 4 pc for Bharat Singh Solanki, 4 pc for Sukhram Rathwa, 4 pc for Arjun Modwadia and 3 pc for Jagdish Thakore.
On Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel’s performance, 30 pc said ‘very good’, 39 pc said ‘average’ and 28 pc said ‘very poor’.
Asked whether they wanted change, 34 pc said they were unhappy and wanted change, 48 pc said they were unhappy but wanted no change, while 16 per cent said, they were happy and do not want change.
Asked about the topmost issues in this election, 44 per cent said 'Support or Oppose Narendra Modi' will be the topmost issue. 14 pc said 'benefit of Centre, State plans' will be the main issue. 8 per cent said Price Rise, 8 per cent said State Govt's performance, 5 pc said local MLA's work, 5 pc said Unemployment, 3 pc said Corruption, 3 pc said Polarization, and 4 pc said Farmers' issues.
Will Narendra Modi become the game changer in elections, 46 per cent said ‘Yes’, 35 per cent said ‘To some extent’, and 17 pc said, ‘it won’t affect’. Asked who will form the government, 65 per cent said ‘BJP’, 28 per cent said ‘Congress, and only two per cent said ‘AAP’.
Asked whose election campaign will have maximum effect, 64 per cent said Narendra Modi, 20 per cent said Rahul Gandhi and only six per cent said Arvind Kejriwal. On Aam Aadmi Party's performance, 60 pc said AAP may not achieve much, 31 pc said AAP will cut into others' votes, and only 2 pc said AAP may form government.
What will save BJP from anti-incumbency? To this question, 43 per cent said 'vote in the name of Modi', 25 per cent said 'change of non-performing MLAs', 15 pc said 'better election management', 5 pc said 'fielding of strong candidates', and 6 pc said ‘poll promises’.
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