With BJP at 238, NDA predicted to win 285 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha election: India TV-CNX Opinion poll

The Narendra Modi-led BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 238 seats, just 13 short of the magical mark, in Lok Sabha 2019 elections. The BJP is likely to lose 44 seats in comparison to 2014 general elections where it bagged 282 seats. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that won 355 seats in 2014 stands to lose 70 seats and end up at 285. 

NDA includes BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, AIADMK, Janata Dal(U), LJP, PMK and other regional parties, while UPA includes Congress, DMK, TDP, JD(S), RJD, JMM, NCP, National Conference, IUML, and other smaller parties. 

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The UPA that won 80 seats in 2014 is likely to win 126 seats, a jump of 46. The Congress Party which saw itself getting reduced to 44 seats in the current Lok Sabha still fails to enter the three-digit mark. The Rahul Gandhi-led Congress is projected to win 82 seats, gaining 38 seats.  The UPA, that includes Congress, DMK, TDP, JD(S), RJD, JMM, NCP, National Conference, IUML, and other smaller parties is projected to win 126 seats.

'Others' including SP, BSP, TMC, TRS, regional parties and independents projected to win in 132 seats. 

The India-TV CNX Opinion poll numbers also project significant gain for Mayawati's Bahujan Samajwadi Party. BSP, that failed to open its account in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 is likely to win 16 seats this time while the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party is likely to win 18 seats. The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party have announced a poll tie up this time. BJP, that won 71 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 General Elections, is likely to end up at 40. A loss of 31 seats in UP.  

As many as 38,600 respondents took part in the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. These included 20,455 males and 18,145 females. The survey was conducted in 193 parliamentary constituencies, which were picked from all the states and Union Territories. The data was collected from March 1 to March 7. The margin of error in the India TV-CNX Opinion poll stands at 2.5 per cent. 

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On Sunday, the Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora announced the dates of Lok Sabha Election 2019. The Election Commission said voting will be held in 7 phases and the counting will be done on May 23. More than 900 million voters will exercise their rights in what will be the world's biggest election in terms of sheer scale and magnitude. 

Here the state wise prediction of the India TV-CNX Opinion poll:

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 40, BSP 16, SP 18, Congress 4, RLD 1, Apna Dal 1, Total 80.
Uttarakhand: BJP 5. Total 5. 
Rajasthan: BJP 20, Congress 5, Total 25. 
West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 30, BJP 12,  Total 42. 
Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 14, BJP 7, Total 21. 
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6, Total 29. 
Chhattisgarh: BJP 6, Congress 5, Total 11. 
Punjab: Congress 9, Akali Dal 3, AAP 1, BJP 0, Total 13. 
Haryana: BJP 9, Congress 1, Total 10. 
Bihar: BJP 15, RJD 8, JD(U) 12, Congress 2, LJP 3,  Total 40.
Jharkhand: BJP 8, JMM 3, Congress 2, JVM(P) 1. Total 14.
Gujarat : BJP 26, Congress 0.  Total 26. 
Himachal Pradesh: BJP 4, Congress 0, Total 4. 
Maharashtra: BJP 22, Shiv Sena 10, Congress 9, NCP 7, Total 48.
Goa: BJP 2, Congress 0, Total 2. 
Tamil Nadu: DMK 16, AIADMK 12, AMMK 2, Congress 5, BJP 1, PMK 2, Other-1.Total 39.
Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 22, TDP 3, Congress 0, Total 25. 
Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 14, AIMIM 1, Congress 2, Total 17. 
Karnataka: BJP 13, Congress 13, JD(S) 2, Total 28. 
Kerala: UDF 12, LDF 7, BJP 1, Total 20.
Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 1, Congress 2, PDP 1, Total 6. 
Assam: BJP 8, AIUDF 2, Congress 4, Total 14. 
Other North East states: BJP 3, Congress 3, MNF 1, NPP 1, CPI(M) 1, NDPP 1, SDF 1. Total 11.
Delhi: BJP 7, Congress 0, AAP 0. Total 7. 
Other Union Territories:  BJP 4, Congress 2. Total 6. 

The final party wise projections: 

BJP 238, 
Congress 82, 
Trinamool Congress 30, YSR Congress 22, SP 18, BSP 16, DMK 16, AIADMK 12, TRS 14, Left Front 6, JD(U) 12, NCP 7, RJD 8, Shiv Sena 10, BJD 14, smaller parties and Ind 38. Total 543 

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