The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance which came to power with a resounding victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, is likely to suffer a major setback this time as the party may fall nearly short of the magic mark of 272 in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, if polls are held today. According to India-TV CNX Opinion Poll, the Modi-led party will likely get 245 seats, 27 short of clear majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. The Opinion Poll also predicted that BJP's hopes to emulate its 2014 victory will suffer setback as Bahujan Samajwadi Party led by Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party forged a 'historic alliance' in Uttar Pradesh to take on the Congress and BJP.
The survey which was conducted after the results of the assembly polls in the five states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram also stated that the Congress may win 146 seats while Other Parties might secure 152 seats. 'Others' include Samajwadi Party, BSP, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Left Front, PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, INLD, Aam Aadmi Party, JVM(P), AMMK of Tamil Nadu and independent MPs.
NDA includes the ruling BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, JD(U), Mizo National Front, Apna Dal, Sikkim Democratic Front, LJP of Ramvilas Paswan, NPP of Meghalaya, INRC of Puducherry, PMK and NDPP of Nagaland.
An India TV release said that UPA includes the main opposition Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal, DMK, TDP, Sharad Pawar's NCP, Devegowda's JD(S), Ajit Singh's RLD, National Conference, RSP, JMM, IUML, Kerala Congress (Mani) and RLSP.
The earlier nationwide survey conducted by India TV-CNX in November, before the assembly polls, had given NDA a clear majority with 281 seats, UPA 124, and 'Others' 138. Since then there has been a reduction of 24 seats in NDA and an addition of 22 seats in UPA, says the survey.
Below are the state-wise break up of seat prediction:
# Uttar Pradesh : Out of 80 Lok Sabha seats, NDA is likely to get 29 seats, SP-BSP Alliance 49 seats, Congress 2 and Others 5.
# Uttarakhand : BJP-4, Congress-1
# Rajasthan : BJP-15, Congres- 10
# West Bengal : Trinamool Congress 26, BJP-10, Congress-2, Left Front-4
# Odisha : Biju Janata Dal-13, BJP- 8
# Madhya Pradesh: BJP- 18, Congress- 11
# Chhattisgarh: BJP- 5, Congress-6
# Punjab : Congress- 7, Akali Dal- 5, AAP- 1
# Haryana : BJP 8, Congress 2
# Bihar : BJP 13, RJD 10, JD(U) 11, Congress 2, LJP 3, RLSP 1
# Jharkhand: BJP 7, JMM 4, Congress 2, JVM(P) 1
# Gujarat : BJP 24, Congress 2
# Himachal Pradesh: BJP 4
# Maharashtra: BJP 22, Shiv Sena 8, Congress 9, NCP 9
# Goa: BJP 1, Congress 1
# Tamil Nadu: DMK 21, AIADMK 10, AMMK 4, Congress 3, PMK 1
# Andhra Pradesh: YSR Congress 19, TDP 4, Congress 2
# Telangana: Telangana Rashtra Samithi 16, AIMIM 1
# Karnataka: BJP 15, Congress 9, JD(S) 4
# Kerala: Congress 8, Left Front 5, IUML 2, BJP 1, KC(M) 1, RSP 1, Independent 2
# Jammu & Kashmir: BJP 2, NC 2, Congress 1, PDP 1
# Assam: BJP 12, AIUDF 2
# Arunachal Pradesh: BJP 2
# Mizoram: MNF 1
# Manipur: BJP 2
# Meghalaya: Congress 1, NPP 1
# Tripura: BJP 1, CPI(M) 1
# Nagaland: NDPP 1, NPF 1
# Sikkim: SDF 1
# Delhi: BJP 5, AAP 1, Congress 1
# Chandigarh: BJP 1
# Andaman & Nicobar: BJP 1
# Dadra, Nagar Haveli: BJP 1
# Daman & Diu: BJP 1
# Lakshadweep: Congress 1
# Puducherry: INRC 1
According to the release, research and survey agency CNX gave 54,300 respondents structured questionnaire across 543 parliamentary constituencies, covering 1,086 assembly constituencies, with an average of 100 respondents in each Lok Sabha constituency. Those interviewed included 27,832 males and 26,408 females in the age group 18 to 60 years.
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