The global losses due to the deadly coronavirus outbreak could be about USD 156 billion, of which China may account for USD 103 billion, the ADB said on Friday in its assessment report on the impact of the novel COVID-19 outbreak on the global economy. More than 3,400 have died and over 99,400 people have been infected globally from the virus, which has reached more than 80 countries and territories.
The virus that first originated in China in December last year has killed 3,042 and infected over 80,550 people in the country. "In a moderate scenario, where precautionary behaviours and restrictions such as travel bans start easing three months after the outbreak intensified and restrictions were imposed in late January, global losses could reach USD 156 billion, or 0.2 per cent of global GDP," the Manila-based Asian Development Bank said in its report.
"The People's Republic of China (PRC) would account for USD 103 billion of those losses or 0.8 per cent of its GDP. The rest of developing Asia would lose USD 22 billion, or 0.2 per cent of its GDP," the bank said in new analysis on the impact of the virus.
The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will have a significant impact on developing Asian economies through numerous channels, including sharp declines in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects, the bank warned in a statement.
The magnitude of the economic losses will depend on how the outbreak evolves, which remains highly uncertain. The range of scenarios explored in the analysis suggests a global impact in the range of USD 77 billion to USD 347 billion, or 0.1 per cent to 0.4 per cent of the GDP, it said.
"There are many uncertainties about COVID-19, including its economic impact," ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said. "This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses. We hope this analysis can support governments as they prepare clear and decisive responses to mitigate the human and economic impacts of this outbreak," he said.
The World Health Organisation last week raised the global virus risk to maximum level after the outbreak spread to sub-Saharan Africa and stock markets around the world plummeted.
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